Senate '06

More news from the upcoming Senate race (via Adam Groves) was in the Memphis Commercial Appeal today.

Vile said Ford may be the best-known name, for better and worse, even though he has not run statewide before. "Unfortunately, he's up at a time for this nomination when his uncle, the state senator (John Ford), is just making a fool of himself in more ways than one," he said.

There's a lot more -- go read Adam's take on the news and the article (which is also quoted after the jump).

With Frist leaving, 5 come in
Ford Jr. is among the early prospects for open Senate seat
By Bartholomew Sullivan and Richard Locker
Contact
February 13, 2005

WASHINGTON -- Twenty-one months before Tennessee's next election for a U.S. Senate seat, five candidates are already in the race and one other high-profile political veteran is laying the groundwork for a likely run.

Senate Majority Leader Bill Frist, R-Tenn., says he intends to keep his pledge to serve only two terms in the Senate and step down after the 2006 election, assuring an expensive donnybrook to succeed him. Frist is considering a 2008 presidential run.

So far three Republicans and two Democrats, including U.S. Rep. Harold Ford Jr. of Memphis, are in the race to succeed Frist. Ford has been traveling the state well beyond his Shelby County district for months, making national television appearances and raising his profile on a variety of issues, particularly military matters as the war in Iraq drags on.

Ford's only opponent in the Democratic primary so far is state Sen. Rosalind Kurita of Clarksville, who is also actively campaigning.

Nashville Mayor Bill Purcell said last week that he has no plans to run but is frequently mentioned as a possible Democratic candidate if Ford's candidacy falters.

The real barn burner is under way in the Republican primary, much as it was in 1994 when Frist won the nomination over five others in a GOP field known as the "six-pack." Frist went on to defeat three-term Democrat Jim Sasser in the 1994 Republican landslide.

Republicans running are Chattanooga Mayor Bob Corker, former four-term West Tennessee congressman Ed Bryant of Jackson, and state Rep. Beth Harwell of Nashville, who stepped down as state GOP chairman in December.

In addition, former congressman Van Hilleary -- the party's unsuccessful nominee for governor in 2002 -- has just conducted a statewide poll that indicates he would be the GOP frontrunner if he runs, which his close associates now say is likely.

"The poll results showed me with a commanding lead should I get in, and I'm seriously thinking about it and will probably make a decision next week," Hilleary said Friday.

Candidates have until spring 2006 to file to run in the August primaries.

The 2006 GOP field was almost another six-pack. U.S. Rep. Marsha Blackburn, whose district includes parts of eastern Shelby County, announced Friday she won't seek Frist's seat, and U.S. Rep. Zach Wamp of Chattanooga withdrew from the Senate race last fall.

Former Tennessee GOP chairman John 'Chip' Saltsman of Nashville has also decided against the race, he said Friday.

"There's a lot of strong name recognition," said John R. Vile, professor and chairman of the political science department at Middle Tennessee State University in Murfreesboro. "This race will be driven more than most by the fact there won't be an incumbent."

Vile said Ford may be the best-known name, for better and worse, even though he has not run statewide before. "Unfortunately, he's up at a time for this nomination when his uncle, the state senator (John Ford), is just making a fool of himself in more ways than one," he said.

With Corker in the race and Purcell a possibility, Vile said it's worth noting that it took another mayor, Phil Bredesen of Nashville, two statewide runs to translate regional name recognition into statewide election as governor.

Corker, Bryant and Hilleary all have one statewide race under their belts: Corker in the 1994 GOP primary for the Senate, Hilleary as the 2002 GOP gubernatorial nominee who lost to Bredesen, and Bryant in the 2002 GOP primary to succeed former senator Fred Thompson, which Bryant lost to Lamar Alexander.

Given Tennessee's political trends of recent years, Vile said a "moderate- to conservative-leaning Republican would be more likely to capture the state" in 2006 but said "Ford is very gifted and would represent the state well if he were elected."

Rhodes College political science professor Marcus Pohlmann said the off-year election, in President Bush's sixth year in office, might bode well for a Democrat.

"Traditionally the 'in' party takes some losses in off-year elections," he said. And the President's proposals for cutting domestic programs and changing Social Security may be big campaign issues.

Both Pohlmann and Vile said Ford's race will be an issue for some voters in a state where no black candidate has won a statewide office other than for the state's appellate courts.

"He'll lose some Democratic white voters but he'll probably benefit from a larger than normal black turnout, and those two phenomena may counterbalance each other," Pohlmann said.

Indeed, one of the perceptions Ford has had to battle is the question of why he would give up his safe House seat for an uphill battle for the Senate.

But Ford said he wants to move to the other side of the Capitol because congressional dynamics mean the Senate is where "I believe the biggest issues and biggest questions the country will have to answer over the next decade or so" will be settled -- "from national security to international relations to tax reform, even to the entitlement reform issues that we have to address at some point, and obviously health and education.

"So I'm excited about talking about ideas and offering answers and solutions and I look forward to this contest of ideas with my Republican friends and even my Democratic friends," Ford said.

Contact Washington correspondent Bartholomew Sullivan at (202) 408-2726 or Nashville Bureau chief Richard Locker at (615) 255-4923.