| Democrat | Republican | |
| Tuesday Feb 12 | DC | |
 Clinton 24% |  Huckabee 17% | |
| Maryland | ||
Clinton 37% | Huckabee 29% | |
| Virginia | ||
Clinton 35% | Huckabee 41% | |
UPDATE (7:00pm): WOW! Obama has already been projected the winner in Virginia! Sha-ZAM! That was the only state where Clinton was considered competitive...
UPDATE (7:50pm): Voting hours in Maryland have been extended an hour and a half because of bad weather. Polls that were about to close will now stay open until 9:30pm.
UPDATE (8:15pm): Obama is the projected winner in DC.
UPDATE (8:20pm): Clinton deputy campaign manager, Mike Henry, has resigned.
UPDATE (9:30pm): Obama is the projected winner in Maryland.
UPDATE (10:05pm): John McCain is speaking now. Clinton and Obama spoke earlier, and the contrast between Obama (who just finished moments ago) and McCain is incredible -- Barack and the 18,000 in his audience were so full of energy and John and his small gathering were quite listless by comparison. I am so hopeful that this will be the matchup in the fall!
Even while voters have been casting their ballots today, talk has turned to the March 4th contests in Ohio and Texas. The New York Times said today that they are "must-win" for Clinton. The Washington Post includes Pennsylvania in that category as well. I haven't seen any polling in those states yet, but the press is saying that Clinton is currently ahead in all three (though Pennsylvania doesn't have its primary until late April).
UPDATE (10:30pm): Pollster has just added Texas! Hopefully Ohio and Pennsylvania will follow presently!
What's next? On Tuesday, February 26th (two weeks from today), the Democrats debate on MSNBC. Between now and then are next Tuesday's primaries in Hawaii (dems) and Wisconsin. After the debate are contests in Ohio, Texas, Rhode Island and Vermont. Then March wraps up with visits to Wyoming (dems) and Mississippi. April will take us just to Pennsylvania, and then May's contests include Indiana, North Carolina, West Virginia (dems), Hawaii (reps), Kentucky, Oregon, Idaho (reps), South Dakota, Montana (dems), New Mexico (reps), and Nebraska (reps).
If we don't have a couple of candidates by then, we'll have to take it to the conventions! Fun, fun, fun!
5 comments:
Texas is an interesting mix, with a largely redneck rural population, lots of African-Americans in east and deep east( think Houston) Texas, with lots and lots and LOTS of Hispanics south, central, west, especially.
I hear that Obama does best with well-educated whites and blacks, while hill does better with uneducated (read: redneck) whites and Hispanics. She's going to be here in SA tomorrow (I can't go, darn!)
I do think that TX would be an uphill climb for Obama, but it might be doable. Hell, we've got so many delegates that he'd *better* spend some time here!
I was startled by the contrast between Obama and McCain. My friend - a McCain supporter (and voter, on super Tuesday) who also likes both Democrats told me that after watching Obama last night he was pretty much sold. He commented that it was unfair (to McCain) to cut from Obama to McCain. After listening to Obama talk about his idea of hope, McCain's charge that he was speaking in platitudes fell pitiably flat.
I think Obama can win Texas, but I do think the Democrat-leaning portion of Tejano voters will be the key swing group.
Do you reckon that Obama has a chance in Texas or Ohio - can he knock Clinton out before things get messy and legal?
Chris, I think Obama could take the race on March 4th. Chuck Todd has been doing the math, and Clinton faces quite the uphill battle in the next few weeks:
"He's got a 100-plus pledged delegate lead and even has the lead if you factor in superdelegates. Here's our math: The NBC News election unit hard count stands at 1078 to 969. If you factor in the unallocated pledged delegates, our estimate rises to approximately 1128 to 1009 in Obama's favor (margin of error +/- 5 delegates). Toss in the superdelegates and Obama's lead is 1306 to 1270 (again +/- 5 delegates). What does this mean? For Clinton to overtake Obama for the pledged delegate lead -- which we think is the single most important statistic for the superdelegates to decide their vote -- she'll have to win 55% of the remaining delegates. Assuming next week goes Obama's way in Wisconsin and Hawaii, that percentage rises to 57%. Toss in likely Obama victories in Vermont, Wyoming, Mississippi, Oregon, Montana, and South Dakota, then Clinton's percentage need tops 60% of the remaining delegates available. And this is simply for her to regain the pledged delegate lead..."
Further down, he goes on to point out:
"This Democratic race has two finish lines. One could be as early as March 4. An Obama victory in either of the big states would probably put the pledged delegate count out of reach for Clinton and would allow Obama to disprove the idea that he either can't win Latinos or blue-collar white Democrats. Should Clinton sweep those big March 4 states, the race goes on to the end and becomes a rhetorical fight over stats and polls."
I hope, for the strength of our party and our candidate, that he is able to close the deal on March 4th, and I'm encouraged by Chuck's analysis.
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