But that's the URL!

(Sorry about the language.) This. Fucking. Election.

Kucinich Bows Out

This is according to Cleveland's Plain Dealer.

Checking in with the candidates...

Let's check in with the campaigns real quick as they emerge from the holiday weekend. I'll list them in order of their Vegas odds:

[even] Hillary Clinton - Her biggest problem at this point is Bill. When he can manage to stay awake, he's being quite the bitch, party unity and the Clinton legacy be damned. He needs to tone down the frantic mud-slinging.

UPDATE: I'm not alone.

[5/2] Barack Obama - for his part, Obama is starting to get a little dirty himself, though he did get the best laugh at last night's debate. He did some work over the weekend to mend fences with the gay community, but for the most part, his back-and-forth with the Clintons (which one is the candidate?) has been a distraction. Hopefully both candidates will return to substantive topics soon.

[7/2] John McCain -- more and more, he is starting to look like the Republican party's front runner. If he beats Giuliani in Florida, he'll definitely become the guy to beat on Feb. 5th. He's not the establishment's top choice, but independents (and neocons?) love him. Will conservatives warm up? He's gotten the nod from D'Amato, who along with Fred himself, has abandoned the Thompson campaign.

[10/1] Mitt Romney -- the dimwitted establishment candidate -- who was (maybe) punk'd by his own kid -- keeps plugging along.

[12/1] Rudy Giuliani - well, 9iu11iani will always have 9/11. But New York City's pugilist is trailing in his home state and stuck in 6th everywhere else. That 12/1 is pretty generous. February 5th might indeed be Goodbye Rudy Tuesday.

[25/1] Mike Huckabee -- is having financial woes, so the press and his staff are on their own. In the meantime, his bestest buddy, Chuck Norris, thinks McCain is too old to be president. But the Ron Paul folks disagree. I think Huck's peaked, and it's just going to be downhill from here. Between that stupid theocracy slip and a hamfisted racist appeal in South Carolina, he's jumped the shark.

[75/1] John Edwards - is starting to seem like the reasonable Democrat as Obama and Clinton snipe at each other. He's picked up the support of Martin Luther King III. We'll see if he can pick up some speed in South Carolina.

[OFF] Ron Paul - He's got the most dedicated supporters in the race and has enjoyed a few good showings, but he's got his offensive side, is maybe a racist and maybe kind of nuts, and his numbers are falling, so the only question here is when does he go indie, and once he goes, will he draw more votes from the Dems or the Reps?

[OFF] Dennis Kucinich - Oh, this poor guy. Even his wife gets more press than he does. 'Nuff said.

New Hampshire Results

Because I know you guys love these things, here's a look back at previous New Hampshire primary results -- with tonight's rankings appended as well! In short, I think there were some big winners (Clinton and McCain), but no big losers (some early response from the left).

UPDATE: Amen to this!

The Kids Are Alright

Random notes in a post-Iowa world:

The young people finally showed up!. If the next generation is, indeed, taking over, is Chelsea the only relevant Clinton?

Obviously, the big winners yesterday were the Democratic party and Obama and Edwards. Both men made great speeches last night. If you didn't get to stay up and watch them live, here are the reruns: Barack Obama ~ John Edwards.

UPDATE: Walter Shapiro's Iowa in the rear-view mirror looks back at both Obama and Edwards in Iowa.

Dodd and Biden: I'm so sorry to see both of these candidates go, but glad to have them back in the trenches and doing what they do so well -- standing up to both the Republicans and the spineless Democrats -- full time again. And perhaps we will see them in new roles soon... majority leader and secretary of state, perhaps?

And while their campaigns are still active, Kucinich, Gravel and Hunter have been excluded from the weekend's New Hampshire debates, and their showings in Iowa do not bode well for their continuing efforts.

The good news is that the results in Iowa show that a candidate can't waltz in and just buy themselves a nomination. The candidates who thought they could throw some money at the state and win were shocked to see rivals with much less money do just as well, if not better, than they did. Yay for the power of the people! Also good news: the establishment took a big hit in Iowa. Hillary Clinton, the DLC, the BDE, Mitt Romney -- they all were schooled by anti-establishment winners like Obama, Edwards and Huckabee. Them's fighin' results!

Did the night also leave us with more questions than answers?

We do still have the same old Rudy Giuliani: "9/11, 9/11, 9/11, 9/11, 9/11, 9/11..." He's got nothing else to say.

And who is suddenly the ugly stepchild in the GOP? Evangelical voters. Republicans have been quietly tolerating them, and using them to get out the vote, for years. But are they ready to let one lead their party? Apparently not.

Yes, I've known for a while that not all Republicans embrace the religious right, the culture wars, the incessant gay-bashing and all the other "social" issues. But they certainly tolerated and enabled these folks for decades (that's why some of us left the party a long time ago). I suspected and hoped that there'd come a time when the Republicans would finally have enough of the holy-rollers in their midst, but I never thought the revolt would come on little cat feet. Almost without notice, something changed, and establishment Republicans are now turning on Huckabee and the "values voters" that he represents, big time.

Or is it Ron Paul that the Republicans can't stand?

Results (with many updates)

Iowa Democrats: Barack Obama (38%), John Edwards (30%), Hillary Clinton (29%), Bill Richardson (2%), Joe Biden (1%), Chris Dodd (0%), Mike Gravel (0%), Dennis Kucinich (0%)

Iowa Republicans: Mike Huckabee (34%), Mitt Romney (25%), Fred Thompson (13%), John McCain (13%), Ron Paul (10%), Rudy Giuliani (3%), Duncan Hunter (0%)


MSNBC Results

Chris Dodd has already indicated that he will be dropping out of the race.

Turnout was great, with the projections estimating 220,588 Democrats (compare that to 124,000 four years ago) and 114,000 Republicans caucused. Those are remarkable numbers for a red state!

Obama is speaking now and doing a great job. Emmie commented that "he looks presidential." His voice sounds a little shaky, but his message is full of energy and change (hitting a lot of the populist tones that Edwards has been ringing). If he's trying to roll some momentum into New Hampshire, he's doing a great job. Wow.

Joe Biden is also out.

From Ezra Klein:

Barack Obama won tonight, but, in a sense, John Edwards' campaign also triumphed. The progressivism of the race, the focus on ideas, the courage of the Democrats -- all were products of his early example. He began the campaign by talking about poverty, announced his candidacy in the mud of New Orleans, set the agenda with the first universal health care bill, and closed Iowa speaking of the uninsured. This is Barack Obama's victory, and it's richly deserved. But Edwards, running as a full-throated populist, set the agenda and finished second, ahead of the Clinton juggernaut. He said his role was to speak for the voiceless. He now barrels towards New Hampshire with ever more volume. And while his shot at the nomination is long at best, his candidacy, even if it fails, will have been far more successful than most.

What is Dennis Kucinich running for?

There's always been a little idealist in me who liked Dennis Kucinich, and even though I'm a fan of Obama, this has really put me off.

Democratic presidential candidate Dennis Kucinich on Tuesday asked his supporters to make rival Sen. Barack Obama their second choice if he doesn't meet a cutoff point for voting in Iowa's caucuses.

Dennis, as a candidate, it's not your job to tell me who my second choice should be. It's your job to convince me to vote for you. You're either in or out here. Are you really running for the nomination, or are you campaigning for another candidate? If you're not serious about your own campaign, then please stop wasting our time and get out of the race (and stop accepting contributions under false pretenses).

Life on the Fringe

Via Joe, I took the candidate calculator quiz. Here are my results (no big surprises here -- except maybe that Hillary's so high on the list):

Ohio Representative Dennis Kucinich (D) - 91.43% match
Former Alaska Senator Mike Gravel (D) - 80.00%
New York Senator Hillary Clinton (D) - 71.43%
Connecticut Senator Christopher Dodd (D) - 71.43%
Delaware Senator Joseph Biden (D) - 68.57%
Former North Carolina Senator John Edwards (D) - 68.57%
Illinois Senator Barack Obama (D) - 68.57%
New Mexico Governor Bill Richardson (D) - 60.00%
Texas Representative Ron Paul (R) - 37.14%
Former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani (R) - 25.71%
Businessman John Cox (R) - 22.86%
Arizona Senator John McCain (R) - 22.86%
Former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee (R) - 17.14%
Colorado Representative Tom Tancredo (R) - 11.43%
Kansas Senator Sam Brownback (R) - 8.57%
California Representative Duncan Hunter (R) - 5.71%
Former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney (R) - 5.71%
Former Tennessee Senator Fred Thompson (R) - 2.86%

Erg. I'm still hoping Al Gore will get in the race -- though I'm not sure where he would fall in the rankings...

The Debate

Here are a few thoughts on the debate (and the transcript), which while entertaining (thanks, Gravel!), was, in terms of substance, a disappointment. I think one of the goals of any of these debates should be to get the candidates away from their canned talking points, and that didn't happen here. Perhaps the moderator needs to insist that the candidates actually answer the question being asked instead of responding with non sequiturs from their stump speeches.

I don't think anyone pulled ahead of the pack with this debate.

Bill Richardson -- is he losing his hearing? He kept leaning in and squinting when asked a question. He blew the Gonzales issue last week and his follow up last night was another fumble.

Chris Dodd -- he did a really good job. I imagine there are some people who didn't even know he was in the race and are now quite impressed.

John Edwards -- he just wasn't on his game last night. Perhaps he suffers because of high expectations. Before the debate, Elizabeth was (as usual) awesome when chatting with Chris Matthews.

Joe Biden -- he got the biggest (and only?) laugh of the night, and was also the most at ease. He was the only candidate who really seemed comfortable up there.

Barack Obama -- he was under a lot of pressure coming in. He has a lot to prove, and he hasn't done it yet.

Hillary Clinton -- enh. I'm so over Hillary. She is so freakin' professional, she will never, ever stray from her talking points. I'd love to see the real Hillary, but it ain't gonna happen.

Dennis Kucinich -- he's consistent, but I think Gravel stole his thunder a bit. He wasn't the only dove up there, but he is the most soft-spoken. (Did anyone notice after the debate that he was with a red-headed giantess?)

Mike Gravel -- wow. I didn't miss Al Sharpton as much with Mike Gravel in the game. He reminded me a bit of Vice Admiral James Bond Stockdale, which probably isn't fair.

South Carolina State -- what a beautiful campus! Kudos for a great event, which showcased an impressive, historic university.

UPDATE: the results are coming in (via Daffodil Lane).

Who won the debate? 31% Obama 24% Clinton 14% Edwards 6% Biden 4% Richardson 3% Kucinich 2% Dodd 2% Gravel 13% Not Sure

Who lost the debate? 17% Gravel 12% Clinton 10% Kucinich 9% Dodd 9% Obama 9% Richardson 8% Biden 5% Edwards 20% Not Sure