But that's the URL!

(Sorry about the language.) This. Fucking. Election.

Monday Roundup

Chances are, I'll find something to add to this list as the day wears on...

• Today is California Gay Marriage Day. Lots of us will be watching, with lumps in our throats, as so many wonderful couples say "I do." Mazal Tov!
• Hillary Clinton supporters are quickly lining up behind Barack Obama, as expected (despite the icky efforts of the creepy McCain team). The democratic nomination, the White House and the feminist movement are all about more than just one person. It hurts to lose, but it doesn't take long for reality to sink in, and McCain definitely is not a woman's candidate -- not even close.
• Fall ballot watch: will it be Barr/Paul?
• Gas pump sticker shock got you down? How about taking a one-tank trip?
• It's like watching a fish on a hook: John McCain flip flops his way to new record!

NC, IN

Oh, please, let this be the night that puts us all out of our misery.

UPDATE: Clinton has cancelled all public events for tomorrow (except for a fundraiser tomorrow night). The results from Lake County look like they might be enough for Obama to take the lead from her in Indiana. It's almost 1 am and we're still waiting...

UPDATE: AT 1:09am, MSNBC declared Clinton the winner in an Indiana squeaker.

UPDATE: good summary coverage from towleroad.

	Democrat (%, #votes, delegates)					Republican (%, #votes, delegates)
Tuesday May 6	North Carolina
		Obama	56%	890,695	(58)		McCain	73%	381,138	(0)
		Clinton	42%	657,920	(42)		Huckabee	12%	62,917	(0)
		(margin		232,775)			Paul	8%	40,275	(0)
	Indiana
		Clinton	51%	638,274	(37)		McCain	77%	317,837	(0)
		Obama	49%	615,862	(33)		Huckabee	10%	40,018	(0)
		(margin		22,412)			Paul	8%	31,481	(0)
	99% reporting

Upcoming:
May 13: West Virginia
May 20: Kentucky and Oregon
June 1: Puerto Rico
June 3: South Dakota and Montana

At Last, PA!

The dog had some minor surgery today, but she's back home and feeling fine. While she convalesces, we'll be following the returns from Pennsylvania...

UPDATE: just an aside: I've been watching the coverage all evening, and have noticed that both candidates have played John Mellencamp songs. But interestingly, Mellencamp himself (along with his wife) appeared on stage with Obama in Indiana this evening. Will the campaign music issue resurface?

	Democrat (%, #votes, delegates)					Republican (%, #votes, delegates)
Tuesday April 22	Pennsylvania
	Clinton	55%	1,260,444	(83)		McCain	73%	587,210	(0)
	Obama	45%	1,046,220	(73)		Paul	16%	128,483	(0)
						Huckabee	11%	91,430	(0)
100% reporting

Next up:
May 3: Guam
May 6: North Carolina and Indiana
May 13: West Virginia
May 20: Kentucky and Oregon
June 1: Puerto Rico
June 3: South Dakota and Montana

(Our long national nightmare continues ad nauseum...)

Catch Up!

We've got a debate tonight (#20, and maybe the last one of the race)! I'm pretty excited, as anything might happen -- there will be no opening or closing statements, and no time limits. It'll be chaos! Whoo-hoo!

I've also got a backlog of news and links, since I took a day off, and it was a very newsy day! I'll be adding to his list as the evening wears on, so reload the page for more -- I'll probably keep at it until around midnight. I'm not planning to live- blog the debate, but who knows!?! If things get really wacky, I might have to make a comment or two!

Chris Dodd, the first of the Democratic presidential contenders to endorse, has stepped into Obama's camp. Will Richardson be next to pick a team? (Also, progressives note: Russ Feingold has endorsed Obama.)

People keep talking about how Barack Obama is at a higher risk for potential harm than other candidates/presidents might be, but I'm not worried. Our Secret Service has an awesome record. If they weren't so good at what they do, I'm sure someone would have taken W out by now. If they can keep that unbelievably incompetent, reviled idiot safe, they can protect Barack Obama from a few stupid racists.

Is Peggy Noonan drunk? Or off her meds?

Who is Hillary running against? Which Hillary will show up tonight? The one who hates speeches and rallies? She criticizes Obama for a lack of foreign policy experience, but I'm pretty sure Barack has more foreign policy cred (as a member of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee) than Bill Clinton had when he was running for president in 1992. Besides, look where her supposed experience got her. And while we're at it, which Clinton is running?

Oh, Mark Penn. You're so ugly. But who are you really rooting for? Are you really in this primary race?

Dear John McCain... it's the lobbyists, stupid! Oh, and that pesky law that you wrote! Hypocrisy does not become you (and btw, John, the surge didn't work).

Dear Ron Paul supporters... you won't get anywhere if you don't vote!

The SCLM is at it again. Will they get away with it (Rachel's on it!)? There's a poll here. (And btw, why does CNN suck so much these days?)

One of Romney's valiant warrior sons says that Mitt may flip flop himself back into the race! Maybe he needs to get rid of some more of that pesky money...

... and in non-presidential politics, Chattanooga still has the worst mayor ever! How's this for a hamfisted and stupid attempt at humor?

Three New Polls

As an update to yesterday's post about polling in pivotal upcoming states, here are three new polls of Texas voters that were released today:

Pollster	Dates	Clinton	Obama	Undecided	/	McCain	Huckabee	Paul	Undecided
Rasmussen Reports	Feb 14	54	38	9	/	45	37	7	11
American Research Group	Feb 13-14	42	48	7	/	42	36	11	9
Texas Credit Union League	Feb 11-13	49	41	8	/	45	41	6	5

Ron Paul is a Republican

He has ruled out a 3rd party run.

Coming Up...

Whew. Super Tuesday had a little something for each of the candidates. McCain collected his "front runner" statuette, Clinton defied the last-minute polling, Obama came out with the most delegates, Huckabee won some surprises in the South, Paul reminded people that he is still in this race, and Romney... well, Romney still has lots of money to spend. So on we go, and here's the rest of the schedule:

Here we go...

ALAB	Obama	56%	Clinton	42%	..	Huckabee	41%	McCain	37%	Romney	18%
ALAS	Obama	74%	Clinton	25%	..	Romney	44%	Huckabee	22%	Paul	17%
ARIZ	Clinton	50%	Obama	42%	..	McCain	47%	Romney	34%	Huckabee	9%
ARK	Clinton	70%	Obama	26%	..	Huckabee	60%	McCain	20%	Romney	13%
CALIF	Clinton	52%	Obama	42%	..	McCain	42%	Romney	34%	Huckabee	12%
COLO	Obama	67%	Clinton	32%	..	Romney	59%	McCain	19%	Huckabee	13%
CT	Obama	51%	Clinton	47%	..	McCain	52%	Romney	33%	Huckabee	7%
DEL	Obama	53%	Clinton	42%	..	McCain	45%	Romney	33%	Huckabee	15%
GA	Obama	66%	Clinton	31%	..	Huckabee	34%	McCain	32%	Romney	30%
IDAHO	Obama	80%	Clinton	17%	..	(May 27)
ILL	Obama	65%	Clinton	33%	..	McCain	47%	Romney	29%	Huckabee	16%
KAN	Obama	74%	Clinton	26%	..	(Feb 9th)
MASS	Clinton	56%	Obama	41%	..	Romney	51%	McCain	41%	Huckabee	4%
MINN	Obama	66%	Clinton	32%	..	Huckabee	41%	Romney	22%	McCain	20%
MISSO	Obama	49%	Clinton	48%	..	McCain	33%	Huckabee	32%	Romney	29%
MONT	(June3)				..	Romney	38%	Paul	25%	McCain	22%
NJ	Clinton	54%	Obama	44%	..	McCain	55%	Romney	28%	Huckabee	8%
NM	Clinton	49%	Obama	48%	..	(June 3)
NY	Clinton	57%	Obama	40%	..	McCain	51%	Romney	28%	Huckabee	11%
NDAK	Obama	61%	Clinton	37%	..	Romney	36%	McCain	23%	Paul	21%
OK	Clinton	55%	Obama	31%	..	McCain	37%	Huckabee/p>	33%	Romney	25%
TN	Clinton	54%	Obama	41%	..	McCain	34%	Huckabee	32%	Romney	24%
UT	Obama	57%	Clinton	39%	..	Romney	90%	McCain	5%	Paul	3%
WV	(May 13)				..	Huckabee	52%	Romney	47%	McCain	1%
Hamilton County Tenn	Obama	52%	Clinton	44%	..	Huckabee	39%	McCain	30%	Romney	21%
Delegate Count	Obama	838	Clinton	834	..	McCain	730	Mitt Romney	256	Mike Huckabee	194
Delegates needed: 2025					..	Delegates needed: 1191

Oh, my! Does this change everything?

Arlo Guthrie has endorsed Ron Paul!

Florida, again.

* John McCain 36%
* Mitt Romney 31%
* Rudy Giuliani 15%
* Mike Huckabee 13%
* Ron Paul 3%

* Hillary Clinton 50%
* Barack Obama 33%
* John Edwards 14%

This is another weird year in Florida. The Republicans are only getting half their delegates, and the Democrats get none.

The Dem candidates all agreed ahead of time not to campaign in Florida after the Florida Democratic Party stripped the party of all their delegates as punishment for having an early primary (the same thing happened in Michigan). Clinton is the only candidate who pursued votes in Florida, although technically, she did not campaign there. The blogosphere is responding with both praise and ire (will this issue split the party?), and I'm sure we're just at the very beginning of this story.

On the Republican side, I think this was a very decisive victory for McCain. Not only did he get a good five points on Romney, but he also got the endorsement of Giuliani (as he cuts his losses, preserves his speaking fee rates, and finally bows out of the race).

Checking in with the candidates...

Let's check in with the campaigns real quick as they emerge from the holiday weekend. I'll list them in order of their Vegas odds:

[even] Hillary Clinton - Her biggest problem at this point is Bill. When he can manage to stay awake, he's being quite the bitch, party unity and the Clinton legacy be damned. He needs to tone down the frantic mud-slinging.

UPDATE: I'm not alone.

[5/2] Barack Obama - for his part, Obama is starting to get a little dirty himself, though he did get the best laugh at last night's debate. He did some work over the weekend to mend fences with the gay community, but for the most part, his back-and-forth with the Clintons (which one is the candidate?) has been a distraction. Hopefully both candidates will return to substantive topics soon.

[7/2] John McCain -- more and more, he is starting to look like the Republican party's front runner. If he beats Giuliani in Florida, he'll definitely become the guy to beat on Feb. 5th. He's not the establishment's top choice, but independents (and neocons?) love him. Will conservatives warm up? He's gotten the nod from D'Amato, who along with Fred himself, has abandoned the Thompson campaign.

[10/1] Mitt Romney -- the dimwitted establishment candidate -- who was (maybe) punk'd by his own kid -- keeps plugging along.

[12/1] Rudy Giuliani - well, 9iu11iani will always have 9/11. But New York City's pugilist is trailing in his home state and stuck in 6th everywhere else. That 12/1 is pretty generous. February 5th might indeed be Goodbye Rudy Tuesday.

[25/1] Mike Huckabee -- is having financial woes, so the press and his staff are on their own. In the meantime, his bestest buddy, Chuck Norris, thinks McCain is too old to be president. But the Ron Paul folks disagree. I think Huck's peaked, and it's just going to be downhill from here. Between that stupid theocracy slip and a hamfisted racist appeal in South Carolina, he's jumped the shark.

[75/1] John Edwards - is starting to seem like the reasonable Democrat as Obama and Clinton snipe at each other. He's picked up the support of Martin Luther King III. We'll see if he can pick up some speed in South Carolina.

[OFF] Ron Paul - He's got the most dedicated supporters in the race and has enjoyed a few good showings, but he's got his offensive side, is maybe a racist and maybe kind of nuts, and his numbers are falling, so the only question here is when does he go indie, and once he goes, will he draw more votes from the Dems or the Reps?

[OFF] Dennis Kucinich - Oh, this poor guy. Even his wife gets more press than he does. 'Nuff said.

Michigan Results Already!

That was quick!

	Mitt Romney	39%	John McCain	30%	Mike Huckabee	16%
	Ron Paul	6%	Fred Thompson	4%	Rudy Giuliani	3%

A few thoughts:
1. Rudy had really better do well in Florida.
2. Stick a fork in Fred. He's done.
3. For that matter, time for Ron Paul to go indy.
4. I'm pleased to see Huckabee have such a poor showing. I hope it is directly attributable to his incredible admission at a campaign appearance yesterday.

Onward!

Well, New Hampshire was a wild ride last night. The good news is that whoever the Democratic nominee is, I'll be happy, because it's a good field. The Democrats are all smart people and any of them would blow the idiots in the current administration out of the water. My favorites are Edwards and Obama, but I have to admit, it will be fun to watch the right-wingers go nuts if Hillary ends up as our candidate.

Further, I think it's good to see the race go beyond these early states, so that the rest of the country has a chance to weigh in on this important decision (and encourage the candidates to continue to hash out the issues). However, while I suspect Obama, Edwards and Clinton are all in it for the long haul, I'm afraid a few Republicans won't be able to keep their campaigns going without some significant early victories -- Mitt can always write himself a check, but I think he's in a unique position. Huckabee, Thompson and Giuliani will be in trouble soon if they don't pick up a few early gold medals (to use Romney's parlance) -- and the pressure is on Rudy in particular after he sat out Iowa and New Hampshire, opting instead to put a lot of eggs in the Florida basket.

While we're waiting for the next round, here's the latest candidate/issues quiz to snake its way around the Internets (I took the candidates who are no longer in the race out of my results):

83% Barack Obama 82% John Edwards 80% Hillary Clinton 73% Bill Richardson 35% Rudy Giuliani	26% Ron Paul 20% John McCain 14% Mike Huckabee 13% Mitt Romney   5% Fred Thompson
2008 Presidential Candidate Matching Quiz

New Hampshire Results

Because I know you guys love these things, here's a look back at previous New Hampshire primary results -- with tonight's rankings appended as well! In short, I think there were some big winners (Clinton and McCain), but no big losers (some early response from the left).

UPDATE: Amen to this!

Ron Paul Campaign, RIP?

If these newsletters are authentic, his career is over. The New Hampshire results won't matter. One way or another, Ron Paul has some 'splainin' to do (here's a sample from a (current) supporter: "it doesn't sound like him!")!

NH Debates Are On Now

I don't know what all the dorks are doing tonight, but the cool people are watching TV!   ;-D   These are great debates (I'm not blogging it, but here are Joe's takes on the Republican* and Democrat** segments). The candidates are getting to roll up their sleeves and have it out somewhat, which is really cool to watch after so many stilted forums where candidates are not allowed to interact with each other. The Republicans are just finishing up, but you still have time to catch the Democrats, who will follow. They're on ABC, which in Chattanooga, is channel 10.

UPDATE: let's go to the videos! WMUR; C&L: Rep ~ Dem; WaPo
Transcripts: Republicans ~ Democrats

Here are a few thoughts just as the debates end... These were definitely the best debates of the campaign so far. In general, I think the Democrats were quite a bit more cordial then the Republicans, while still hashing out some important issues. Hillary probably didn't take it home like she needed to, while Obama was relaxed and presidential. Edwards also had a great night, while Richardson was quick and landed a number of laugh lines. All four of these candidates are impressive, but I think Obama and Edwards came out on top. On the Republican side, things are much more muddled. They were a lot more negative and argumentative, and I don't think Romney coped very well. At the same time, Huckabee didn't dazzle me, so I think maybe it was McCain's night. Giuliani and Thompson just didn't connect at all, and I thought Thompson was kind of ugly to Ron Paul at one point -- practically rolling his eyes at some of Paul's ideas.

(btw, it occurred to me as I was tuning into ABC as the debates were about to begin that this is the first time I've watched something on this network since back before the '06 election, when they aired that ridiculous propaganda film. I guess I know how to make a fit of pique last, huh?) ;-)

*Joe's best line of the night: "These Republicans keep talking about securing the borders. George Bush has been president for almost eight years. How come Bush and his GOP controlled Congress never secured the border?" DOOP!

**Joe's best line of the night: "Gotta say, this terrorism question should be T-ball for these guys. You know why we didn't get OBL? Bush and Iraq." DOOP!

The Kids Are Alright

Random notes in a post-Iowa world:

The young people finally showed up!. If the next generation is, indeed, taking over, is Chelsea the only relevant Clinton?

Obviously, the big winners yesterday were the Democratic party and Obama and Edwards. Both men made great speeches last night. If you didn't get to stay up and watch them live, here are the reruns: Barack Obama ~ John Edwards.

UPDATE: Walter Shapiro's Iowa in the rear-view mirror looks back at both Obama and Edwards in Iowa.

Dodd and Biden: I'm so sorry to see both of these candidates go, but glad to have them back in the trenches and doing what they do so well -- standing up to both the Republicans and the spineless Democrats -- full time again. And perhaps we will see them in new roles soon... majority leader and secretary of state, perhaps?

And while their campaigns are still active, Kucinich, Gravel and Hunter have been excluded from the weekend's New Hampshire debates, and their showings in Iowa do not bode well for their continuing efforts.

The good news is that the results in Iowa show that a candidate can't waltz in and just buy themselves a nomination. The candidates who thought they could throw some money at the state and win were shocked to see rivals with much less money do just as well, if not better, than they did. Yay for the power of the people! Also good news: the establishment took a big hit in Iowa. Hillary Clinton, the DLC, the BDE, Mitt Romney -- they all were schooled by anti-establishment winners like Obama, Edwards and Huckabee. Them's fighin' results!

Did the night also leave us with more questions than answers?

We do still have the same old Rudy Giuliani: "9/11, 9/11, 9/11, 9/11, 9/11, 9/11..." He's got nothing else to say.

And who is suddenly the ugly stepchild in the GOP? Evangelical voters. Republicans have been quietly tolerating them, and using them to get out the vote, for years. But are they ready to let one lead their party? Apparently not.

Yes, I've known for a while that not all Republicans embrace the religious right, the culture wars, the incessant gay-bashing and all the other "social" issues. But they certainly tolerated and enabled these folks for decades (that's why some of us left the party a long time ago). I suspected and hoped that there'd come a time when the Republicans would finally have enough of the holy-rollers in their midst, but I never thought the revolt would come on little cat feet. Almost without notice, something changed, and establishment Republicans are now turning on Huckabee and the "values voters" that he represents, big time.

Or is it Ron Paul that the Republicans can't stand?

Results (with many updates)

Iowa Democrats: Barack Obama (38%), John Edwards (30%), Hillary Clinton (29%), Bill Richardson (2%), Joe Biden (1%), Chris Dodd (0%), Mike Gravel (0%), Dennis Kucinich (0%)

Iowa Republicans: Mike Huckabee (34%), Mitt Romney (25%), Fred Thompson (13%), John McCain (13%), Ron Paul (10%), Rudy Giuliani (3%), Duncan Hunter (0%)


MSNBC Results

Chris Dodd has already indicated that he will be dropping out of the race.

Turnout was great, with the projections estimating 220,588 Democrats (compare that to 124,000 four years ago) and 114,000 Republicans caucused. Those are remarkable numbers for a red state!

Obama is speaking now and doing a great job. Emmie commented that "he looks presidential." His voice sounds a little shaky, but his message is full of energy and change (hitting a lot of the populist tones that Edwards has been ringing). If he's trying to roll some momentum into New Hampshire, he's doing a great job. Wow.

Joe Biden is also out.

From Ezra Klein:

Barack Obama won tonight, but, in a sense, John Edwards' campaign also triumphed. The progressivism of the race, the focus on ideas, the courage of the Democrats -- all were products of his early example. He began the campaign by talking about poverty, announced his candidacy in the mud of New Orleans, set the agenda with the first universal health care bill, and closed Iowa speaking of the uninsured. This is Barack Obama's victory, and it's richly deserved. But Edwards, running as a full-throated populist, set the agenda and finished second, ahead of the Clinton juggernaut. He said his role was to speak for the voiceless. He now barrels towards New Hampshire with ever more volume. And while his shot at the nomination is long at best, his candidacy, even if it fails, will have been far more successful than most.

This is Nuts

I saw this live yesterday on Meet the Press, but it's taken me a bit of time to find the link:

MR. RUSSERT: Some Americans believe that life does not begin at conception, and that it's...

GOV. HUCKABEE: Well, scientifically I think that's almost...

MR. RUSSERT: But...

GOV. HUCKABEE: ...a point that you couldn't argue. How, how could you say that life doesn't begin at conception...

MR. RUSSERT: Right. Do you respect that view?

GOV. HUCKABEE: ...biologically?

MR. RUSSERT: Do you respect that view?

GOV. HUCKABEE: I respect it as a view, but I don't think it has biological credibility.

Did you hear that right? Mike Huckabee, a guy who denies evolution, says you can't argue with established science.

Mike, Mike... you can't have it both ways. Either peer-reviewed, accepted science is an authority, or it isn't. You have to decide which way you're going to come down on this. Cherry-picking the science you like and rejecting the science you don't like isn't going to help your credibility.

You know, I actually (sorta) defended Huckabee the other day. Someone said he's almost as stupid as Bush and I responded by saying that while he may not be better than Bush, he's certainly smarter.

But really, I don't know about that. I might have been mistaken. Willful ignorance is certainly dangerous. Can the republican party (or this country) survive with yet another intellectual lightweight at the helm (and let's not get started on Ron Paul)?