But that's the URL!

(Sorry about the language.) This. Fucking. Election.

Florida, again.

* John McCain 36%
* Mitt Romney 31%
* Rudy Giuliani 15%
* Mike Huckabee 13%
* Ron Paul 3%

* Hillary Clinton 50%
* Barack Obama 33%
* John Edwards 14%

This is another weird year in Florida. The Republicans are only getting half their delegates, and the Democrats get none.

The Dem candidates all agreed ahead of time not to campaign in Florida after the Florida Democratic Party stripped the party of all their delegates as punishment for having an early primary (the same thing happened in Michigan). Clinton is the only candidate who pursued votes in Florida, although technically, she did not campaign there. The blogosphere is responding with both praise and ire (will this issue split the party?), and I'm sure we're just at the very beginning of this story.

On the Republican side, I think this was a very decisive victory for McCain. Not only did he get a good five points on Romney, but he also got the endorsement of Giuliani (as he cuts his losses, preserves his speaking fee rates, and finally bows out of the race).

As the Water Turns

It's still about two hours before the polls close in Florida, and Giuliani is circling the drain. The polls and talking heads are suggesting that either Romney or McCain will be the big winner. Will it be Rudy's last stand? Goodbye Rudy Tuesday? The suspense is building! It's going to be an interesting evening!

The Republican Debate

Giuliani* did not get to chuck a hail mary pass like he needed to do (plus, he was just plain wrong in one response). Huckabee made some sense when it came to stimulating the economy (maybe he was listening to Rachel!) and John McCain has a great mom. Other than that, this was a scary bunch of old white men, though their behavior was (for the most part) much more respectful than we saw from the Democrats the other night. I think McCain came out on top.

More from fellow Chattanoogans: Jeremiah Cook and Matt

*Check out this story in the comments following the linked post:

Rudy was giving a speech to a gathering of NRA members when his cellphone rings. He stops his speech and answers the damn phone! He ends the conversation with "I love you too honey."

Before picking up where he left off in the speech, he explains to the audience, "Oh that was my wife, she called to ask if I could pick up some milk at the 9/11 on my way home."

Checking in with the candidates...

Let's check in with the campaigns real quick as they emerge from the holiday weekend. I'll list them in order of their Vegas odds:

[even] Hillary Clinton - Her biggest problem at this point is Bill. When he can manage to stay awake, he's being quite the bitch, party unity and the Clinton legacy be damned. He needs to tone down the frantic mud-slinging.

UPDATE: I'm not alone.

[5/2] Barack Obama - for his part, Obama is starting to get a little dirty himself, though he did get the best laugh at last night's debate. He did some work over the weekend to mend fences with the gay community, but for the most part, his back-and-forth with the Clintons (which one is the candidate?) has been a distraction. Hopefully both candidates will return to substantive topics soon.

[7/2] John McCain -- more and more, he is starting to look like the Republican party's front runner. If he beats Giuliani in Florida, he'll definitely become the guy to beat on Feb. 5th. He's not the establishment's top choice, but independents (and neocons?) love him. Will conservatives warm up? He's gotten the nod from D'Amato, who along with Fred himself, has abandoned the Thompson campaign.

[10/1] Mitt Romney -- the dimwitted establishment candidate -- who was (maybe) punk'd by his own kid -- keeps plugging along.

[12/1] Rudy Giuliani - well, 9iu11iani will always have 9/11. But New York City's pugilist is trailing in his home state and stuck in 6th everywhere else. That 12/1 is pretty generous. February 5th might indeed be Goodbye Rudy Tuesday.

[25/1] Mike Huckabee -- is having financial woes, so the press and his staff are on their own. In the meantime, his bestest buddy, Chuck Norris, thinks McCain is too old to be president. But the Ron Paul folks disagree. I think Huck's peaked, and it's just going to be downhill from here. Between that stupid theocracy slip and a hamfisted racist appeal in South Carolina, he's jumped the shark.

[75/1] John Edwards - is starting to seem like the reasonable Democrat as Obama and Clinton snipe at each other. He's picked up the support of Martin Luther King III. We'll see if he can pick up some speed in South Carolina.

[OFF] Ron Paul - He's got the most dedicated supporters in the race and has enjoyed a few good showings, but he's got his offensive side, is maybe a racist and maybe kind of nuts, and his numbers are falling, so the only question here is when does he go indie, and once he goes, will he draw more votes from the Dems or the Reps?

[OFF] Dennis Kucinich - Oh, this poor guy. Even his wife gets more press than he does. 'Nuff said.

Michigan Results Already!

That was quick!

	Mitt Romney	39%	John McCain	30%	Mike Huckabee	16%
	Ron Paul	6%	Fred Thompson	4%	Rudy Giuliani	3%

A few thoughts:
1. Rudy had really better do well in Florida.
2. Stick a fork in Fred. He's done.
3. For that matter, time for Ron Paul to go indy.
4. I'm pleased to see Huckabee have such a poor showing. I hope it is directly attributable to his incredible admission at a campaign appearance yesterday.

Giuliani Campaign Circles the Drain

Perhaps his loony ideas about fiscal matters have led to his campaign's financial crisis (spinmeister claims to the contrary, people don't just spontaneously start working without pay for no reason!).

Onward!

Well, New Hampshire was a wild ride last night. The good news is that whoever the Democratic nominee is, I'll be happy, because it's a good field. The Democrats are all smart people and any of them would blow the idiots in the current administration out of the water. My favorites are Edwards and Obama, but I have to admit, it will be fun to watch the right-wingers go nuts if Hillary ends up as our candidate.

Further, I think it's good to see the race go beyond these early states, so that the rest of the country has a chance to weigh in on this important decision (and encourage the candidates to continue to hash out the issues). However, while I suspect Obama, Edwards and Clinton are all in it for the long haul, I'm afraid a few Republicans won't be able to keep their campaigns going without some significant early victories -- Mitt can always write himself a check, but I think he's in a unique position. Huckabee, Thompson and Giuliani will be in trouble soon if they don't pick up a few early gold medals (to use Romney's parlance) -- and the pressure is on Rudy in particular after he sat out Iowa and New Hampshire, opting instead to put a lot of eggs in the Florida basket.

While we're waiting for the next round, here's the latest candidate/issues quiz to snake its way around the Internets (I took the candidates who are no longer in the race out of my results):

83% Barack Obama 82% John Edwards 80% Hillary Clinton 73% Bill Richardson 35% Rudy Giuliani	26% Ron Paul 20% John McCain 14% Mike Huckabee 13% Mitt Romney   5% Fred Thompson
2008 Presidential Candidate Matching Quiz

New Hampshire Results

Because I know you guys love these things, here's a look back at previous New Hampshire primary results -- with tonight's rankings appended as well! In short, I think there were some big winners (Clinton and McCain), but no big losers (some early response from the left).

UPDATE: Amen to this!

Dixville Notch!

They vote first, at midnight, in New Hampshire. Ten Democrats and seven Republicans have spoken:

* Barack Obama 7 votes
* John Edwards 2 votes
* Bill Richardson 1 vote

* John McCain 4 votes
* Mitt Romney 2 votes
* Rudy Giuliani 1 vote

Welcome to New Hampshire Primary Day! woot!

NH Debates Are On Now

I don't know what all the dorks are doing tonight, but the cool people are watching TV!   ;-D   These are great debates (I'm not blogging it, but here are Joe's takes on the Republican* and Democrat** segments). The candidates are getting to roll up their sleeves and have it out somewhat, which is really cool to watch after so many stilted forums where candidates are not allowed to interact with each other. The Republicans are just finishing up, but you still have time to catch the Democrats, who will follow. They're on ABC, which in Chattanooga, is channel 10.

UPDATE: let's go to the videos! WMUR; C&L: Rep ~ Dem; WaPo
Transcripts: Republicans ~ Democrats

Here are a few thoughts just as the debates end... These were definitely the best debates of the campaign so far. In general, I think the Democrats were quite a bit more cordial then the Republicans, while still hashing out some important issues. Hillary probably didn't take it home like she needed to, while Obama was relaxed and presidential. Edwards also had a great night, while Richardson was quick and landed a number of laugh lines. All four of these candidates are impressive, but I think Obama and Edwards came out on top. On the Republican side, things are much more muddled. They were a lot more negative and argumentative, and I don't think Romney coped very well. At the same time, Huckabee didn't dazzle me, so I think maybe it was McCain's night. Giuliani and Thompson just didn't connect at all, and I thought Thompson was kind of ugly to Ron Paul at one point -- practically rolling his eyes at some of Paul's ideas.

(btw, it occurred to me as I was tuning into ABC as the debates were about to begin that this is the first time I've watched something on this network since back before the '06 election, when they aired that ridiculous propaganda film. I guess I know how to make a fit of pique last, huh?) ;-)

*Joe's best line of the night: "These Republicans keep talking about securing the borders. George Bush has been president for almost eight years. How come Bush and his GOP controlled Congress never secured the border?" DOOP!

**Joe's best line of the night: "Gotta say, this terrorism question should be T-ball for these guys. You know why we didn't get OBL? Bush and Iraq." DOOP!

The Kids Are Alright

Random notes in a post-Iowa world:

The young people finally showed up!. If the next generation is, indeed, taking over, is Chelsea the only relevant Clinton?

Obviously, the big winners yesterday were the Democratic party and Obama and Edwards. Both men made great speeches last night. If you didn't get to stay up and watch them live, here are the reruns: Barack Obama ~ John Edwards.

UPDATE: Walter Shapiro's Iowa in the rear-view mirror looks back at both Obama and Edwards in Iowa.

Dodd and Biden: I'm so sorry to see both of these candidates go, but glad to have them back in the trenches and doing what they do so well -- standing up to both the Republicans and the spineless Democrats -- full time again. And perhaps we will see them in new roles soon... majority leader and secretary of state, perhaps?

And while their campaigns are still active, Kucinich, Gravel and Hunter have been excluded from the weekend's New Hampshire debates, and their showings in Iowa do not bode well for their continuing efforts.

The good news is that the results in Iowa show that a candidate can't waltz in and just buy themselves a nomination. The candidates who thought they could throw some money at the state and win were shocked to see rivals with much less money do just as well, if not better, than they did. Yay for the power of the people! Also good news: the establishment took a big hit in Iowa. Hillary Clinton, the DLC, the BDE, Mitt Romney -- they all were schooled by anti-establishment winners like Obama, Edwards and Huckabee. Them's fighin' results!

Did the night also leave us with more questions than answers?

We do still have the same old Rudy Giuliani: "9/11, 9/11, 9/11, 9/11, 9/11, 9/11..." He's got nothing else to say.

And who is suddenly the ugly stepchild in the GOP? Evangelical voters. Republicans have been quietly tolerating them, and using them to get out the vote, for years. But are they ready to let one lead their party? Apparently not.

Yes, I've known for a while that not all Republicans embrace the religious right, the culture wars, the incessant gay-bashing and all the other "social" issues. But they certainly tolerated and enabled these folks for decades (that's why some of us left the party a long time ago). I suspected and hoped that there'd come a time when the Republicans would finally have enough of the holy-rollers in their midst, but I never thought the revolt would come on little cat feet. Almost without notice, something changed, and establishment Republicans are now turning on Huckabee and the "values voters" that he represents, big time.

Or is it Ron Paul that the Republicans can't stand?

Results (with many updates)

Iowa Democrats: Barack Obama (38%), John Edwards (30%), Hillary Clinton (29%), Bill Richardson (2%), Joe Biden (1%), Chris Dodd (0%), Mike Gravel (0%), Dennis Kucinich (0%)

Iowa Republicans: Mike Huckabee (34%), Mitt Romney (25%), Fred Thompson (13%), John McCain (13%), Ron Paul (10%), Rudy Giuliani (3%), Duncan Hunter (0%)


MSNBC Results

Chris Dodd has already indicated that he will be dropping out of the race.

Turnout was great, with the projections estimating 220,588 Democrats (compare that to 124,000 four years ago) and 114,000 Republicans caucused. Those are remarkable numbers for a red state!

Obama is speaking now and doing a great job. Emmie commented that "he looks presidential." His voice sounds a little shaky, but his message is full of energy and change (hitting a lot of the populist tones that Edwards has been ringing). If he's trying to roll some momentum into New Hampshire, he's doing a great job. Wow.

Joe Biden is also out.

From Ezra Klein:

Barack Obama won tonight, but, in a sense, John Edwards' campaign also triumphed. The progressivism of the race, the focus on ideas, the courage of the Democrats -- all were products of his early example. He began the campaign by talking about poverty, announced his candidacy in the mud of New Orleans, set the agenda with the first universal health care bill, and closed Iowa speaking of the uninsured. This is Barack Obama's victory, and it's richly deserved. But Edwards, running as a full-throated populist, set the agenda and finished second, ahead of the Clinton juggernaut. He said his role was to speak for the voiceless. He now barrels towards New Hampshire with ever more volume. And while his shot at the nomination is long at best, his candidacy, even if it fails, will have been far more successful than most.

Rudy's Sex on the City

Speaking of taking down the front runner, Rudy Giuliani may have done himself in. Between his Shag Fund scandal (more here), close friendships with a crook and a fallen priest, he can't seem to shake the sleaze factor. And now another good friend has been indicted.

Peregrin Wood wrote a haiku that pretty much sums up the Giuliani candidacy:

Giuliani can't
give us a clean government
with friends like Kerik.

Rudy, Rudy, Rudy...

Since this ad was made, New Yorkers paid thousands of dollars to provide security details not only for Rudy himself, but also for his then-wife Donna Hanover and for his then-mistress Judith Nathan. So, do Donna and the people of New York (besides the firefighters) still think of Rudy as an honest guy? Hrmm... Maybe not so much.

Tonight's Republican Debate

I'm watching the Republican YouTube/CNN debate at the moment, and I can't believe my ears. When Giuliani was asked about the possibility that he let New Yorkers foot the bill for his adulterous trysts, he seemed to blame the police -- that it's their fault, because they were the ones who decided how to report (or hide?) the expenses involved in following Rudy around the state every time he got randy and snuck out to spend the weekend with his mistress. Did I hear that right?

Also, did Duncan Hunter just say that gays shouldn't be allowed to serve in the military because most Americans who join the military are homophobes? Yikes! By that logic, segregation was ok as long as most Americans were racists. And this guy wants to be president?

[The only other candidates to answer the "Don't Ask Don't Tell" question were Huckabee, Romney and McCain. Huckabee just agreed with Hunter. Romney tore a page from Hillary's book by awkwardly trying to triangulate on the issue. And McCain just said that "Don't Ask Don't Tell" is working (don't tell the people trying to cope with the shortage of translators in the Middle East) and that everyone in the military agrees with him -- almost unanimously. By the way, the homosexual 43-year Brigadier General who asked the question was in the audience and he was heckled by the crowd (who were those people?).]

No one answered the question about how Jesus would feel about the death penalty. Huckabee got a laugh for his evasion ("Jesus was too smart to run for public office"), but no one was able to deal with it directly. How sad. Republicans claim to be the party of Jesus, but they really can't seem to talk about him intelligently (and don't get me started on the Democrats all trying to out-Jesus each other!). Maybe we need to just admit that religion has no place in politics and put us all out of our misery.

Really, I honestly tried to find something positive in tonight's debate. But this selection of white men all seemed either really mean, crooked, or simply insane (what's the deal with Ron Paul's secret NAFTA superhighway?).

Breaking: Did Giuliani Let New Yorkers Foot the Bill for his Adulturous Trysts?

If this is true, his campaign is over.

Rough Weekend For Rudy!

The Daily News shed even more light on his "values" and Frank Rich savaged him in the NYTimes:

Few know more about Rudy than his perennial boon companion, Mr. Kerik. Perhaps during his romance with Ms. Regan he talked only of the finer points of memoir writing or about his theories of crime prevention or about his ideas for training the police in the Muslim world (an assignment he later received in Iraq and botched). But it is also plausible that this couple discussed everything Mr. Kerik witnessed at Mr. Giuliani's side before, during and after 9/11. Perhaps he even explained to her why the mayor insisted, disastrously, that his city's $61 million emergency command center be located in the World Trade Center despite the terrorist attack on the towers in 1993.

Perhaps, too, they talked about the business ventures the mayor established after leaving office. Mr. Kerik worked at Giuliani Partners and used its address as a mail drop for some $75,000 that turns up in the tax-fraud charges in his federal indictment. That money was Mr. Kerik's pay for an 11-sentence introduction to another Regan-published book about 9/11, "In the Line of Duty." Though that project's profits were otherwise donated to the families of dead rescue workers, Mr. Kerik's royalties were mailed to Giuliani Partners in the name of a corporate entity Mr. Kerik set up in Delaware. He would later claim that he made comparable donations to charity, but the federal indictment charges that $80,000 he took in charitable deductions were bogus.

Amazingly, given that he seeks the highest office in the land, Mr. Giuliani will not reveal the clients of Giuliani Partners. Perhaps he has trouble remembering them all. He testified in court last year that he has no memory of a mayoral briefing in which he was told of Mr. Kerik's association with a company suspected of ties to organized crime.

And so on...

UPDATE: gah! And his Monday wasn't much better! Today he was totally dissed by 9/11 Commission Head Thomas Kean!

Did Murdoch's News Corp. ask Regan to lie about Kerik affair to protect Giuliani?

That's what she claims.

Dobson Hearts Huckabee

It will be of little surprise to my regular readers that I consider Mike Huckabee's endorsement from James Dobson, a deranged and hateful man who encourages parents to beat their own children, to be just as humiliating as Rudy Giulaini's thumbs up from the unhinged Pat Robertson. The good news, though, is that the religious right is splitting themselves into irrelevancy.

ps: Mr. Dobson, how about you lay off my family for a while and focus on the Oral Roberts tribe? And if that doesn't keep you busy, cast your gaze over to Creflo Dollar, Kenneth Copeland, Benny Hinn and their respective kin. And then, if you ever manage to get that whole religious right(eous) glass house in order, then you can resume all your whining and sputtering about all us regular folks...

UPDATE: will he? or won't he?